Such low unemployment should ensure re-election, but this clown-car government is anything but predictable
Before Saturday’s Wentworth byelection, the Liberal party was letting it be known that it would require “a miracle” for it to hold the seat. It was a blatant case of expectation management – any loss would be explained as being in the too-hard basket; any victory would be championed as one of the greatest results in electoral history. Never mind that the Liberal party held the seat by 17.7% and it was the eighth-safest Coalition seat in the country. It turned out they were right to expect a thumping, although even the most pessimistic probably didn’t expect it to be so bad.
So in light of that bit of expectations fluff, let me make my own election call – the next federal election is the Liberal party’s to lose. Incumbency and the economic situation should see the Coalition winning it (to borrow a favourite phrase of the prime minister) in a canter.
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