Published: October 20, 2018
Why were the postal votes and pre-poll votes so much stronger for the Liberal party?
At 10pm last night, as coverage for the Wentworth byelection wound down for the night, the independent candidate Kerryn Phelps was leading with 54% of the two-candidate preferred vote over the Liberal candidate, Dave Sharma, and most commentators (not to mention the candidates and parties) had called the race for Phelps. Yet when we woke up this morning, the race was much closer. So what happened?
Phelps won a clear majority of votes cast at local polling places on election day. She managed 54% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. Yet she did much worse on pre-poll and postal votes.
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