One Nation preferences may have flowed to Coalition but there is scant evidence United Australia had an effect
Almost a quarter (24.7%) of all formal votes cast in the House of Representatives at Saturday’s election were for a minor party or an independent. This is a new record, exceeding the 23.5% who ignored the major parties in 2016. The story about why Labor lost this election can be found in the composition of this one-quarter of the electorate, which is less Labor-friendly than the minor party voter base in 2016.
Neither major party’s primary vote changed by much. The Coalition’s primary vote has dropped by 0.6%, while Labor’s has dropped by 0.9%. Yet Labor’s two-party-preferred vote has dropped on average by about 1% across the seats where a swing has been recorded. This swing can be explained by which voters are voting for minor parties.
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